Sensex Today: Bulls Gear Up as Nifty Eyes 23,700 Amid Global Relief
Indian markets poised for a positive open, tracking global cues.
Top Summary
- What happened: Indian equity markets are expected to open positively, with Gift Nifty at 23,674, up by 57 points.
- Why it matters: Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential US military action against Iran, provide a boost to market sentiment.
- What changes for people: Traders should focus on stock-specific opportunities, support levels, and global developments, considering existing market volatility.
- Who is affected: Investors, traders, and market analysts closely monitoring the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices.
Market Open Anticipation
Indian equity markets are likely to open with a mildly positive bias. This expectation is fueled by the Gift Nifty trading at 23,674, a gain of 57 points.
Global markets are experiencing potential relief buying. This comes after reports suggesting a delay in potential US military action against Iran, reportedly following requests from Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Technical Indicators and Analysis
The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher by 0.03 percent on May 18, after recovering from intraday losses. Despite this recovery, momentum indicators remain weak, suggesting short-term bearish undertones.
Elevated India VIX and firm crude oil prices continue to be concerns. The DI- remains above the DI+, signaling continued seller dominance.
According to technical analysis, the Nifty is expected to trade within the 23,250–23,850 range in the near term. A decisive move above 23,850 may open the path toward the 24,000–24,100 resistance zone.
On the downside, sustaining below 23,400 could intensify selling pressure, potentially dragging the index toward 23,250 and then 23,100 levels.
Derivatives Data and Volatility
The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose to 1.24 on May 18 from 1.01, indicating fresh put writing and support at lower levels. The India VIX climbed 4.47 percent to 19.63, signaling continued discomfort for bulls.
Analysts believe that a move above 20 in the volatility index could increase downside risks. Stability below 18 would support bullish sentiment.
Option chain positioning suggests immediate support near the 23,400–23,250 zone. Resistance is visible around the 23,800–24,000 zone.
Bank Nifty Performance
The Nifty Bank also recovered from intraday weakness but still closed 0.3 percent lower. It formed a bullish candle, reflecting buying interest at lower levels.
Technically, Bank Nifty tested the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally during intraday trade. However, it remains below the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level and all key moving averages, indicating weakness.
Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around 52,500–52,200. Resistance is seen near 54,400–54,700.
Overall, the technical setup suggests a mildly positive opening supported by easing geopolitical concerns, but the broader market structure remains cautious due to elevated volatility, weak momentum indicators, and persistent pressure near higher levels. Traders are likely to remain stock-specific with focus on key support levels and global developments.
- Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
What to Watch Next
Investors should closely monitor global crude oil prices and India VIX. Pay attention to key support and resistance levels for both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty to gauge market direction.