MP Battles 44% Rain Deficit as Monsoon Delays; Farmers Face Sowing Crisis

Top Summary

• What happened: Madhya Pradesh is grappling with a significant 44% rainfall deficit, with 45 out of 55 districts below average. The Southwest Monsoon's arrival is delayed by 8-10 days, now expected around June 25.
• Why it matters: The monsoon delay poses serious concerns for Kharif crop farmers, preventing timely sowing and risking seed damage for those who sowed early.
• What changes: Farmers are advised to wait for at least 4 inches of rain before sowing crops. Pre-monsoon activities bring varied weather, from storms in some areas to intense sun in others.
• Who is affected: Primarily Kharif farmers across the state, residents in 45 districts experiencing below-average rain, especially eastern divisions (65% shortfall).

Monsoon Delay Worsens Deficit Across MP

Madhya Pradesh is currently facing a substantial 44% rainfall deficit, with the southwest monsoon expected to arrive around June 25. This delay of approximately 8-10 days from its usual June 15 schedule has left major cities like Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, and Jabalpur experiencing dry conditions.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a thunderstorm and rain alert for 38 districts, including Bhopal and Indore, for Saturday. Pre-monsoon activity continues, with heavy rain recorded in Rajgarh and Maihar on Friday.

Regional Rainfall Disparities Highlight Crisis

The state's rainfall deficit is not uniform. Eastern districts under the Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, and Sagar divisions are experiencing a severe 65% shortfall. In contrast, western divisions including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, and Narmadapuram are 27% below normal.

Out of the state's 55 districts, 45 have received below-average rainfall. Bhopal is the exception, recording 62% excess rain with 4 inches against a normal of 2.5 inches. Alirajpur remains the only district with no rainfall so far.

Kharif Farmers Face Sowing Crisis

The delayed monsoon has sparked significant worry among farmers, particularly those dependent on timely rains for Kharif crops such as soybean, urad, moong, and tur. Many are unable to commence sowing due to insufficient soil moisture.

According to SS Dhakad, Senior Scientist at Shajapur Krishi Vigyan Kendra, at least 4 inches of rain is needed to ensure adequate soil moisture for sowing, and farmers should wait until then.

Farmers who sowed early, expecting timely monsoon, now face the risk of seed damage due to lack of moisture, potentially forcing them to sow again. However, those with irrigation facilities have some relief.

Mixed Weather Patterns Across MP

Recent rainfall in areas like Rajgarh, Damoh, Rewa, Satna, and Maihar on Friday led to a notable drop in daytime temperatures. Seoni was the coolest at 34.2°C, followed by Dhar (34.5°C), Pachmarhi (34.8°C), and Shivpuri (35.2°C).

Conversely, Khajuraho recorded the highest temperature at 42.4°C, with Datia at 41.6°C. Among major cities, Indore recorded 35.1°C, Bhopal 37.3°C, Ujjain 36°C, Jabalpur 38.8°C, and Gwalior 40°C.

Storm and Sunshine Alerts Issued

The Meteorological Department has issued an orange alert for a strong storm in Agar-Malwa and Sehore on Saturday. A spell of storm and rain is also predicted for a wide range of districts including Bhopal, Raisen, Vidisha, Indore, Gwalior, Jabalpur, and Sagar.

Meanwhile, districts like Satna, Rewa, Sidhi, Singrauli, Maihar, Umaria, Shahdol, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Ujjain, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Barwani, Dhar, and Khargone may experience strong sunshine.

Historical June Weather Trends in Major Cities

Bhopal's June Extremes

Bhopal frequently experiences both intense heat and heavy rain in June. Over the past decade, temperatures have crossed 44°C before June 15 on three occasions. The city recorded its highest June rainfall of 16 inches in 2020, and 10.9 inches in 2024—the second-highest in a decade.

Indore's Milder Junes

Indore has seen relatively cooler Junes since 2020, with maximum temperatures ranging from 39.6°C to 41.6°C, the latter recorded in 2024. The city receives about 20% of its annual rainfall in June, with 5.5 inches recorded last year. Its highest June temperature was 45.8°C on June 3, 1991.

Gwalior's Persistent Heat

Gwalior remains one of the hottest cities in June. Temperatures reached 47.8°C in 2019 and 45.7°C in 2024, often ranging between 45°C and 46°C. The city received 28.5 inches of rain in June 1952, including a record 7.5 inches in a day on June 27.

Jabalpur's Early Monsoon Advantage

Jabalpur often benefits from early monsoon entry, recording nearly 30% of its annual rainfall in June from 2016 to 2025. Last year, the city received over 8.5 inches of rain, and the monsoon is expected to enter this year through its southern parts.

Ujjain's Consistent June Rains

Ujjain has consistently received good rainfall in June, recording 2.5 to 8 inches annually between 2016 and 2025. Its highest monthly total was over 13.5 inches during June 1970, with a 24-hour record of about 6.5 inches set on June 15, 2001.

What to Watch Next

The state awaits the crucial arrival of the southwest monsoon around June 25, which will be vital for alleviating the severe rain deficit and enabling timely Kharif crop sowing. Continued pre-monsoon showers and IMD alerts will offer short-term relief, but the overall agricultural outlook hinges on the monsoon's consistent progression.