Monsoon Alert: IMD Downgrades Forecast, Drought Risk Looms Over India
India faces a high probability of deficient monsoon rainfall this year.
Top Summary
- What happened: The IMD has downgraded its monsoon forecast, predicting a 60% chance of deficient rainfall (drought).
- Why it matters: A weak monsoon threatens the farm sector, water reservoirs, groundwater recharge, and hydropower potential.
- What changes: Farmers may need to opt for drought-tolerant crops; heatwave warnings issued for multiple states.
- Who is affected: Farmers, rural economy, states dependent on monsoon rains, and the overall Indian economy.
Monsoon Downgrade: Drought Looms
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast downward. There is now a 60% chance of deficient rainfall, indicating a potential drought year.
Rainfall during the June-September season is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This is a decrease from the 92% predicted in April.
This situation poses a significant threat to the agricultural sector and could negatively impact water resources and power generation.
El Nino's Impact
The IMD attributes the downgraded forecast to the likely development of strong El Nino conditions. El Nino is a climatic phenomenon characterized by warming ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
IMD chief Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said the formation is expected to gradually evolve from weak in June to moderate in July-Aug and strong in September. It will impact the entire rainy season.
"The latest climate model forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season,"
Heatwave Warnings and Delayed Sowing
The IMD has also predicted 'above normal' heatwave days in June for many parts of India. This includes UP, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh.
Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may also experience heatwave conditions. Rajasthan and Jharkhand may, however, experience 'below normal' heatwave days during the month.
A potential delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala, combined with the El Nino effect, may delay sowing operations. More than half of India's cultivated area is rain-fed.
Government Preparedness
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that the nation is fully prepared to handle any eventuality. Contingency measures are in place, including promoting drought-tolerant crops and ensuring adequate input availability.
Contingency measures include:
- Promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties
- Weather-based agro-advisory services
- Efficient water management
- Location-specific adaptation strategies
Chouhan urged state governments to prepare for challenging weather conditions and assured them of central government support. He confirmed adequate availability of seeds and fertilizers.
"The nation is fully prepared to deal with any eventuality and is ready with contingency measures"
Monsoon Core Zone at Risk
The 'monsoon core zone,' comprising most of central and western India, is predicted to get 'below normal' rainfall. This region is heavily dependent on rains for farming operations.
This will likely impact the overall acreage of kharif crops and their final output.
West Asia Crisis Complicates Matters
The crisis in West Asia adds further pressure on the farm sector. It impacts the availability and costs of essential inputs like diesel and fertilizers.
This casts a shadow over the rural economy and, consequently, over India's overall economy.
What to Watch Next
Monitor the actual monsoon onset date over Kerala within the next seven days. Also keep an eye on state governments' implementation of contingency plans and their impact on crop yields as the season progresses.