India Monsoon 2026: Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast Amid El Niño Fears

Top Summary

• What happened: The IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall for India in 2026, at 90% of the long-period average (LPA).
• Why it matters: Agriculture, inflation, and economic growth could be negatively impacted due to reduced rainfall.
• What changes for people: Potential water scarcity, crop losses, and increased food prices are likely.
• Who is affected: Farmers, rural populations, and the overall Indian economy face challenges.

Monsoon Forecast Dims Amid El Niño Threat

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026. The seasonal rains are projected at 90% of the long-period average (LPA).

This raises concerns about agriculture, inflation, and economic growth, especially with the ongoing global uncertainties. The Southwest monsoon is crucial, delivering nearly 70% of India's rainfall.

Regional Variations Expected

Dr. M Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated the Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India. He added that it will be below normal over Central and South peninsula India and Northwest India.

 

"Quantitatively, the Southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country is likely to be 90% of the long period average... Below normal rainfall is most likely over the country..."

 

June Rainfall and El Niño Impact

The IMD also warned of weaker rainfall during June. The average rainfall for the country is most likely to be below normal - less than 92% in June.

El Niño is expected to persist at a weak to moderate intensity during July and August. El Niño conditions, triggered by warming ocean temperatures, are typically associated with hot and dry weather.

Historical Trends and Future Outlook

India has historically witnessed deficient rainfall during El Niño years, sometimes leading to drought conditions and crop losses.

IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra mentioned that the Southwest monsoon is expected to advance over parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during the next seven days.

What to Watch Next

Keep an eye on the actual rainfall data during June-September 2026. Also, monitor government interventions to mitigate the potential impact on agriculture and the economy.