Trump’s Nuclear Arms Control Push With Russia Now Hinges on China

Trump insists he can build a “better” agreement that includes Beijing, Moscow, and Washington, but experts warn that bringing all three nuclear powers to the table could take years and risks destabilising decades of arms-control frameworks.

Top Summary

What happened: President Donald Trump said he wants a new nuclear arms control deal with Russia and China after the expiration of the New START treaty.

Why it matters now: With New START expired, no major limits remain on US-Russia nuclear stockpiles, raising fears of a new global nuclear buildup.

What changes for people: The absence of guardrails increases strategic risk, miscalculation potential, and geopolitical volatility affecting global security and defence spending.

Who is affected: The US, Russia, China, NATO allies, non-nuclear countries, and international arms-control institutions.

Global nuclear stability entered uncharted territory this week as the last remaining strategic arms treaty between Washington and Moscow expired without a successor. Trump argues the moment offers a chance to negotiate a broader, modernised pact — but veteran diplomats say the path is far from simple.

New START expires: a world without guardrails

The New START treaty, signed during the Obama administration, limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems for both the US and Russia.

With its expiration:

There are no legally binding caps on US-Russia nuclear arsenals

Verification and inspection mechanisms have ended

Global strategic stability has entered its most uncertain phase in two decades

Former negotiator Rose Gottemoeller told the BBC the world is not “turning its back” on arms control but warned it is a “dangerous moment” with no roadmap ahead.

Trump’s push for a three-way deal

Trump argues that any new framework must include China’s nuclear forces, which have expanded significantly over the past decade.

The goal: a tri-polar arms treaty between Washington, Moscow and Beijing.

But analysts outline major challenges:

China refuses to join talks unless the US and Russia reduce far more of their own arsenals

Russia supports China’s position, complicating trilateral negotiations

Strategic distrust between the three powers is at its highest in years

A former senior US official called the plan “ambitious but unrealistic without concessions none of the parties currently want to make.”

Why China complicates negotiations

China maintains a much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the US and Russia.

Beijing argues:

Its deterrent is minimal and defensive

It should not be bound by the same limits

The US’s missile-defence systems tilt strategic balance

Involving China would require redefining decades of bilateral arms-control architecture.

A widening geopolitical rift

The collapse of the treaty coincides with:

Russia’s deepening alignment with China

A fractured Western alliance facing internal tensions

Rising nuclear modernisation across multiple regions

Without a deal, experts fear an unconstrained arms race across three nuclear superpowers — something not seen since the Cold War.