Saudi Strike on Mukalla Port Exposes Deepening Saudi-UAE Rift, Raising Stakes for Yemen’s Future
Attack highlights widening cracks within the Arab coalition and risks pushing Yemen into a new phase of internal conflict Saudi Arabia’s recent military strike on...
Attack highlights widening cracks within the Arab coalition and risks pushing Yemen into a new phase of internal conflict
Saudi Arabia’s recent military strike on Yemen’s Mukalla port has laid bare serious and long-simmering tensions between Riyadh and its key coalition partner, the United Arab Emirates, triggering concerns about the future stability of Yemen and the cohesion of the Saudi-led Arab coalition.
The strike, confirmed by coalition spokesperson Major-General Turki al-Maliki, targeted ships that allegedly entered Mukalla without coordination with Saudi Arabia or Yemen’s internationally recognised government. According to al-Maliki, the vessels were carrying more than 80 vehicles along with containers of weapons and ammunition intended for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed separatist force in southern Yemen.
A fragile alliance under strain
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been central pillars of the Arab coalition formed in 2015 to counter the Houthi movement, which seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and large parts of the country by force. While both nations initially shared the objective of restoring the internationally recognised Yemeni government, their strategic priorities in Yemen have increasingly diverged.
The Mukalla strike represents the most public and serious rupture between the two Gulf allies to date. Analysts see it as a potential turning point that could reshape Yemen’s political and military landscape. Tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have existed for years but were often managed behind closed doors. The current confrontation, however, has brought those differences into the open.
Why Mukalla and Hadramout matter
Mukalla, the capital of Hadramout governorate, occupies a strategic position on Yemen’s southeastern coast. Hadramout is Yemen’s largest governorate and a critical economic hub, rich in oil and gas resources and home to key infrastructure. It also shares a vital border with Saudi Arabia, making it central to Riyadh’s security, trade, and border management concerns.
Earlier in December, STC forces expanded their control across all southern governorates, including Hadramout and al-Mahra. Saudi Arabia reportedly viewed this expansion as crossing a red line, interpreting it as a direct threat to its national security and influence in eastern Yemen. The Mukalla incident appears to be closely tied to this escalation.
A divided Yemeni leadership
The fallout from the strike has further exposed fractures within Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the eight-member body formed to unify anti-Houthi forces and represent the internationally recognised government.
According to Yemeni political sources, the PLC is now effectively split into two camps aligned with external backers. One faction, led by PLC President Rashad al-Alimi and including figures such as Sultan al-Arada, Abdullah al-Alimi Bawazir, and Othman Hussein Mujalli, is generally seen as closer to Saudi Arabia. The opposing bloc is led by STC chief Aidarus al-Zoubaidi and includes Abdul Rahman al-Mahrami (Abu Zaraa), Tariq Mohammed Saleh, and Faraj Salmin al-Bahsani, who are widely viewed as aligned with the UAE.
This division became evident when PLC members issued conflicting statements following reports that al-Alimi had called for the UAE to withdraw from Yemen after the Saudi strike. One statement supported the call, while another rejected it outright, underscoring how Yemeni institutions are increasingly reflecting regional rivalries rather than a unified national agenda.
Risk of a new internal conflict
Yemeni observers warn that the rapid sequence of events is pushing the country toward a dangerous new phase—one marked not only by the long-running war against the Houthis, but also by potential armed conflict among factions within the so-called legitimate government itself.
Such infighting would further weaken already fragile state institutions, divert attention and resources away from confronting the Houthi movement in the north, and risk plunging southern and eastern Yemen into renewed instability. More than a decade into the conflict, Yemen remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, and any escalation threatens to worsen conditions for civilians.
Strategic implications for the region
The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE casts doubt on the future effectiveness of the Arab coalition. If unresolved, it could undermine the coalition’s military coordination, political credibility, and ability to pursue a coherent strategy in Yemen.
Experts caution that the Houthis stand to benefit most from a divided coalition and a fractured Yemeni leadership. With rival factions turning on each other, the Houthis could consolidate control over northern territories and potentially expand their influence further.
An uncertain road ahead
The Mukalla strike has transformed long-standing tensions into an open crisis, raising fundamental questions about Yemen’s political trajectory and the durability of regional alliances involved in the conflict. Whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can recalibrate their relationship and realign their objectives will be crucial in determining whether Yemen moves toward stability—or slides deeper into fragmentation and proxy warfare.