Pakistan Divided: Leaders Fear US Democrats, Citizens Hope

The Cliff News | 6 November 2026

Pakistan finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads following the Democratic Party's victory in the recent US congressional elections. While the nation's leadership, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, expresses concern over potential scrutiny of their dealings with the former Trump administration, ordinary Pakistanis are looking to the shift in Washington with hopes for peace and a reprieve from the escalating costs of the US-Iran conflict.

The implications of the election result are starkly different for Pakistan's ruling elite and its general populace. For the government and the powerful military establishment, the outcome presents a significant challenge. Their carefully cultivated relationship with Donald Trump and his inner circle, which saw Pakistan mediating in the Iran war, now faces increased risk of detailed congressional examination. This scrutiny could jeopardize the hoped-for economic benefits and rewards that were anticipated from this close diplomatic alignment.

For the average Pakistani, however, the election of Democrats offers a beacon of hope amidst a severe cost-of-living crisis. The ongoing war between the US and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, placing immense pressure on households in the import-reliant nation of over 240 million people. Residents interviewed by Reuters expressed a collective desire for peace, economic stability, and a reduction in the soaring cost of essential commodities.

The sentiment among ordinary citizens suggests a belief that meaningful negotiations and an end to the bloodshed are contingent on a change in US leadership. Karachi resident Sajjad Ali articulated this view, stating, "We believe meaningful negotiations with the current US administration are not possible, and the ongoing bloodshed will not end until there is a change in [the US] government." He further emphasized the need for "peace, economic improvement and a reduction in the rising oil prices." Another Karachi resident, Asim Zafar, expressed hope that the Democratic victory would act as a check on Trump's influence, potentially leading to a shift in policies and a reduction in perceived injustices against Muslim countries.

A Strategic Bet on Donald Trump

Pakistan's engagement with the Trump administration began early in his second term, with Army Chief Asim Munir serving as the primary liaison to the White House. Trump himself has reportedly referred to Munir as his "favourite field marshal." A notable meeting between Munir and Trump in June 2025, notably without civilian Pakistani officials present, underscored the military's central role in this burgeoning rapprochement.

According to Pakistani military sources, these discussions extended beyond security cooperation to encompass potential collaborations in mining, energy, and cryptocurrency. This strategic alignment was further solidified when Pakistan joined Trump's Board of Peace and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, attributing his involvement to helping end the May 2025 conflict with India, a claim that New Delhi disputes.

The mediation in the Iran conflict, which saw Islamabad relaying messages and hosting crucial talks between the US and Iran in April, gave this diplomatic courtship a strategic substance. However, the subsequent Islamabad Agreement proved fragile, failing to achieve lasting peace.

Economic Payoffs Remain Elusive

Despite Pakistan's increased diplomatic engagement, consumers have seen little protection from the economic fallout of the Iran war, particularly the rise in oil prices. The state's own payoffs have also been modest. While the US Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion for Pakistan's Reko Diq copper and gold project in December 2025, a significant $10 billion request for a US Treasury facility remains unaddressed.

The outreach, both public and private, now carries a substantial political risk for Pakistan. Several arrangements involve members of Trump's family or his close associates, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and future scrutiny.

Deals Under Increased Scrutiny

One significant area of concern is Pakistan's exploration of payment mechanisms using USD1, a stablecoin issued by the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial. Memoranda of understanding for this initiative were signed in January, with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb emphasizing the need for innovation to be "aligned with regulation, stability, and national interest."

Furthermore, Pakistan has signed a memorandum to redevelop Manhattan's Roosevelt Hotel, a deal reportedly negotiated by envoy Steve Witkoff. A limited drone order was also placed with Powerus, a company whose investors include Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, sons of the former president. A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, had previously stated in September that there were "no conflicts of interest" when questioned about Powerus.

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, observed that Pakistan's leaders had "built a transactional relationship" with Trump's team. He cautioned that arrangements involving the former president's relatives and friends "might not last," adding that "Pakistan seems totally unprepared for that scrutiny."

Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, warned that any investigations into these dealings could taint the broader US-Pakistan relationship if they appear to be driven by private interests rather than national objectives. This puts Pakistan in a precarious position, having placed considerable diplomatic reliance on one administration.

Bipartisan Support for Key Diplomacy

Despite the risks, analysts suggest Pakistan may still have leverage. Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council noted that Pakistan's cooperation on counterterrorism and its diplomatic efforts concerning Iran generally enjoy bipartisan support in the US. Democrats, he posits, may be more inclined to attribute any problematic deals to Trump himself rather than solely to Pakistan.

However, the overarching risk for Islamabad remains the concentration of its diplomatic efforts on the Trump White House. As Kugelman pointed out, "the risk for Pakistan is that it put so many of its diplomatic eggs in the White House basket that it won’t have anything left for the Democrats." This strategic vulnerability could limit Pakistan's ability to navigate the new political landscape in Washington effectively.