Myanmar's Leader Visits India Amid China Influence and Rare Earths Focus

Top Summary

• What happened: Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is making a five-day official visit to India, his first overseas trip since transitioning from junta chief.
• Why it matters: The visit underscores Myanmar's re-engagement with the region and provides India an opportunity to counter China's influence.
• What changes for people: This could lead to increased cooperation between Myanmar and India, particularly in trade and security.
• Who is affected: Myanmar's military regime, India, China, and regional stakeholders including ASEAN.

Myanmar Leader's India Visit

Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is in India for a five-day official visit, starting Saturday. This is his first overseas trip since becoming president after a transition from junta chief.

The visit highlights Myanmar's gradual return to regional engagement after being shunned by many neighbors following the 2021 coup.

India's Strategic Interests

For India, this visit presents an opportunity to lessen China's influence in Myanmar.

India also aims to secure access to Myanmar's rare earth deposits and strengthen security along its northeastern borders.

Seeking Regional Legitimacy

Richard Horsey of Crisis Group notes that Min Aung Hlaing is seeking to improve diplomatic engagement.

 

"After changing into civilian clothes as president, Min Aung Hlaing is looking to boost diplomatic ⁠engagement across the region,"

 

Horsey added he expects more normal ties with ASEAN.

Balancing Act with China

Analysts suggest that Min Aung Hlaing's visit to India is partly aimed at balancing China's influence, despite historical backing from Beijing.

Gautam Mukhopadhaya, a former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, highlighted this dynamic.

 

"This has been part of Myanmar's way of dealing with India and China, capitulating more to China and trying to sort of balance it with India,"

 

Frontier Offensives and Security

Myanmar's military has launched renewed offensives in frontier areas with rare-earth deposits and trade routes into India and Thailand.

Horsey suggests that Min Aung Hlaing may seek India's help in countering armed groups like the Arakan Army and Chin armed groups.

Economic Opportunities

India is interested in accessing Myanmar's resources, including obtaining mineral samples.

Mukhopadhaya stated that India's focus is on raw materials, rare earths, and business opportunities, while the Myanmar military seeks to strengthen its enterprises.

 

"The bottom line behind this visit from the Indian side is what they can get out of it in terms of raw materials, rare earths (and) business propositions,"

 

Junta's Isolation and Earthquake Diplomacy

Following the February 1, 2021 coup, Myanmar's junta faced widespread condemnation and isolation, including being barred from ASEAN summits.

Last year's earthquake offered a diplomatic opening, leading to Min Aung Hlaing's rare visit to a regional summit in Bangkok.

What to Watch Next

Future developments include potential meetings between Min Aung Hlaing and Xi Jinping in Beijing and further negotiations regarding access to Myanmar's rare earth resources. Monitoring the security situation in Myanmar's frontier regions and its impact on trade routes with India and Thailand is also crucial.