India-US Trade Talks Could Slash Tariffs on Indian Exports from 50% to 15–16%

India and the United States are reportedly in advanced negotiations on a trade deal that could see tariffs on Indian exports to the US fall to 15–16% from the current 50%, according to Mint citing sources.

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran expressed optimism, saying the penal tariffs imposed by the US could be resolved within the next two months. “We may see a reduction in reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 10–15%, which would be a major development for India-US trade,” he added.

The discussions reportedly include India gradually reducing Russian oil imports and allowing more non-GM American corn and soymeal, while the US may extend concessions on energy trade. India imports roughly 34% of its crude oil from Russia, while the US meets about 10% of India’s oil and gas needs.

Bloomberg reports that the discount on Russian crude has narrowed, making Middle Eastern and US oil more competitive. This helped India save $3.8 billion in FY25.

India is the largest merchandise exporter to the US, with exports totaling $86.51 billion in FY25. While tariffs have had limited impact so far, maintaining the current high rates could reduce export volumes by 30% next year, affecting overall GDP contributions.

The deal could potentially be announced at the ASEAN Summit later this month, where PM Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet, although their participation is not yet confirmed.