Gold Holds Gains Amid US Government Shutdown, Eyes Record High

Gold prices advanced 0.70% on Friday, extending their weekly winning streak to a seventh consecutive week, with XAU/USD trading at $3,882 after hitting a daily low of $3,838. The precious metal is eyeing a re-test of its all-time high at $3,896.

The price action comes amid a US government shutdown, which disrupted key economic releases including Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls, leaving markets reliant on Federal Reserve commentary. Fed officials remained dovish, emphasizing the importance of data for monetary policy while keeping a forward-looking stance.

Mixed US economic data also influenced bullion. The ISM Services PMI slowed to 50, signaling moderation, while S&P Global’s Services PMI expanded at 54.2, slightly below August’s 54.5. Weekly labor data were mixed: JOLTS showed rising vacancies, whereas ADP employment revealed job losses.

Market indicators:

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Flat at 97.77

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.11%, up 3 bps

• US real yields: 1.773%, up 2.5 bps

• Fed rate cut expectations: 25 bps likely at October 29 meeting, with 96% probability

Technical outlook: Gold is consolidating in a $3,830–$3,880 range, with momentum stalling despite an overbought RSI.

• Resistance: $3,895 → $3,900 → $3,950 → $4,000

• Support: $3,830 → $3,819 → $3,800 → 20-day SMA at $3,729

Investors are watching the US political deadlock and economic releases closely for cues on the next major move.