Expiry Trade Setup: Will NIFTY50 Close Above 25,900 on Tuesday?

With GIFT NIFTY futures signalling a positive start and global markets trading firm, the NIFTY50 heads into Tuesday’s weekly expiry with a bullish bias. Investors are eyeing whether the index can sustain momentum and close above the 25,900 mark, supported by strong derivatives positioning and renewed FII inflows.

Top Summary

What happened: GIFT NIFTY points to a positive open ahead of Tuesday’s weekly expiry, with NIFTY50 showing bullish structure.

Why it matters now: The India–US trade agreement has boosted sentiment, FIIs are net buyers, and technical indicators suggest a possible positive crossover.

What changes for people: Traders may see higher volatility near 26,000 resistance; option writers could shift positioning intraday.

Who is affected: Derivatives traders, short-term investors, portfolio managers, and retail intraday participants.

NIFTY50 surged 0.6% on Monday, closing above 25,800, driven by upbeat global cues and optimism after the India–US trade deal finalisation. FIIs remained net buyers for the fourth straight session, adding ₹2,222 crore — strengthening the bullish tone.

Key Option Levels for 10 Feb Expiry

Max Call OI: 26,000 — strong overhead resistance

Max Put OI: 25,800 — immediate support zone

Ten strikes to ATM (as of Monday close)

This OI structure indicates:

Bulls defending 25,800

A possible test of 26,000 if momentum sustains

Option writers expecting a range of 25,800–26,000

Technical View: Positive crossover incoming

Chart indicators highlight:

A potential bullish crossover forming

Price firmly above short-term moving averages

Renewed buying interest after last week’s consolidation

If the index sustains early gains:

25,900 becomes achievable

26,000 remains the psychological barrier to watch

A breakout above 26,000 could trigger short covering

However, failure to hold 25,800 may invite quick profit-booking.

Global cues supportive

The broader global markets remain positive:

US tech rebound

Asian markets opening higher

Lower volatility indices

This sentiment spillover could help NIFTY50 stay buoyant through the session.