China’s Exports Fall in October as U.S. Tariff Rush Fades, Exposing Reliance on American Demand

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% in October 2025, reversing from an 8.3% rise in September, as shipments to the United States plunged over 25%, according to customs data released Friday. The decline — the steepest since February — highlights the country’s continued dependence on U.S. demand despite efforts to diversify trade ties.

Economists said exporters had front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to beat expected tariff hikes under U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed trade policy, but that momentum has now waned.

“It appears the rush to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of tariff hikes subsided in October,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Baoyin Capital Management. “China may now need to rely more on domestic demand.”

Exports to the European Union grew only 0.9%, and to Southeast Asia by 11%, while imports rose just 1%, their slowest pace in five months — underscoring weak domestic demand.

The data comes shortly after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year tariff truce, trimming some levies but leaving average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods near 45%, above profitability thresholds for many manufacturers.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened slightly to $24.76 billion in October. The yuan edged lower after the data, marking its first weekly decline in a month.

Analysts warned that the export slowdown and sluggish domestic consumption could weigh on China’s economy into early 2026, prompting policymakers to focus on fiscal expansion and short-term stability.